- The figures show the number of new (top row) and total (bottom row) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from December 4 through February 5 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through March 5.
- This week, 27 modeling groups contributed a forecast that was eligible for inclusion in the new or total deaths ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.
Download national forecast data excel icon[XLS – 16 KB]
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: daypg.com/doc/ensemble/external icon. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
See more: Covid 19 outlook
Download state forecasts pdf icon[PDF – 1 MB]
Download forecast data excel icon[CSV – 744 KB]
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.
Forecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptions
Forecasts are listed when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements and a subset are included in the ensemble. Further details are available here: daypg.com/doc/ensembleexternal icon.
Ensemble and individual team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage, available at daypg.com/forecast-eval/external icon.
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: daypg.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md.external icon Details on the ensemble’s accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the daypg.comrnal icon
Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:
- These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
- Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
- Covid-19 Simulator Consortiumexternal icon (Model: Covid19Sim)
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluationexternal icon (Model: IHME)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Centerexternal icon (Model: MIT-ORC)
- Predictive Science daypg.comrnal icon (Model: PSI)
- University of California, Los Angelesexternal icon (Model: UCLA)
- These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
- AIpertexternal icon (Model: AIpert)
- Bob Paganoexternal icon (Model: BPagano)
- Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
- IEMexternal icon (Model: IEM)
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-APL)
- Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-IDD)
- Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cassandraexternal icon (Model: MIT-Cassandra)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Societyexternal icon (Model: MIT-ISOLAT)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Computational Physiologyexternal icon (Model: MIT-LCP)
- Microsoft AIexternal icon (Model: Microsoft)
- Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
- Loïc Pottierexternal icon (Model: Prolix)
- Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
- Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
- Steve McConnellexternal icon (Model: CovidComplete)
- University of California, San Diego and Northeastern Universityexternal icon (Model: UCSD-NEU)
- University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Model: UMass-MB)
- University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
- University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.